Dec 9, 2024
It’s not up for debate that climate change has a direct result on agriculture. But where is it hitting the hardest? You’ve most likely heard about the threats that it poses to chocolate and coffee production, and what this means for your daily mocha.
While both cocoa and coffee beans are important crops, including in some of the countries where we work, they aren’t the whole story. Here, we look at eleven crops threatened by climate change, crops that are central to both the food security and livelihoods for millions of the people that Concern works with each year. Read on for more, and to learn how we’re working with farmers impacted by global warming to make sure that their harvests remain resilient.
Corn is one of three major crops, along with wheat and rice (see below) that faces an acute threat from climate change. A 2021 NASA study suggests that, by 2030, harvests could drop by as much as 24% due to high greenhouse gas emissions.
This figure represents a global average. The risk would actually be higher in Africa, where corn is the most ubiquitous agricultural product and serves as the main food source for more than 300 million people. To say it’s a staple is an understatement. Yet many farmers who grow it rely on rainwater versus irrigation, which leaves the crop very sensitive to droughts. Unfortunately, droughts happen to be on the rise throughout the continent, and we’re already seeing NASA’s predictions bear out: During the recent record-breaking drought in the Horn of Africa, corn harvests in Kenya alone declined by 22%.
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In Africa, corn is everywhere. How did this non-native crop come to be the staple upon which hundreds of millions of families rely for their main source of food? And why is that a potentially very serious problem?
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In Africa, corn is everywhere. How did this non-native crop come to be the staple upon which hundreds of millions of families rely for their main source of food? And why is that a potentially very serious problem?
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The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that global warming trends have led to roughly 5% decreases in corn, rice, and wheat harvests around the world over the last 60 years. The UN’s Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) predicts that global averages will drop by 1.9% by 2050.
Again, the losses are higher in Africa, where the same UNDRR report predicts that wheat harvests will drop by 15%. The crop is also under high threat in South Asia, with estimated drops by 16%. “Generally, small and low-volume wheat producers suffered large negative impacts due to future climate changes,” said the report’s author, Diego N.L. Pequeno, who modeled several scenarios to guide his predictions.
One thing to note is that wheat is not indigenous to sub-Saharan Africa, and originates in the Middle East along the fertile crescent of the Mediterranean. However, as a crop sensitive to drought and heat, it is also facing challenges in this region as well. Further imports coming from Europe’s bread basket, Russia and Ukraine, have also faced setbacks due to conflict and trade embargoes. While these setbacks aren’t strictly related to climate change, they add to the difficulty of getting this vital staple to many of the world’s hungriest countries.
Globally, a full 20% of the calories consumed by humans every day comes from rice. For one of the world’s most popular staple crops, we depend on just nine countries in Asia for nearly 83% of our global supply: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, Philippines, and Pakistan. These countries are extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels as a result of climate change.
This presents a danger to rice crops, which are grown in freshwater paddies. When flooding brings the seawater into those paddies, the salt levels kill the plants. Even freshwater floods can be deadly if the plants become fully submerged. The World Economic Forum estimates that, by 2050, global rice production will drop by 15% due largely to climate events.
The relationship between rice and climate change is complicated. As the WEF also notes, the plant is not only a victim of the climate crisis, it’s also a cause: Methane and global greenhouse gas emissions related to rice are comparable to those produced by the global shipping industry, owing to the way rice fields are cleared after harvests. Rice production also uses 40% of global irrigation resources and 13% of fertilizer supplies.
With the exception of Central Asia, climate change is expected to have either a mixed or (more likely) negative impact on global cereal production. In addition to wheat, corn, and rice, this would also include crops like barley, oats, and rye.
One recent study of barley production in South America showed that currently 6.59% of the continent is suitable for cultivating the cereal. In the worst-case scenario, climate change could lead to only 1.48% of the land remaining viable in the future. Another report predicts reductions in finger millet harvests (an especially common crop in Uganda and Ethiopia) between 30 and 50%. Even hardier crops like oats aren’t free from potential threats.
The good news: Some cereals, like quinoa and millet, are actually more resilient against climate threats and make for strong, climate-resilient alternatives. Another study suggests that rotating cereal crops (a Climate Smart Agriculture technique) can help sustain harvests even with an unpredictable climate.
Pulses and legumes (including soy, green beans, lentils, mung beans, fava beans, chickpeas, kidney beans, and cowpeas) can be adaptable to climate change. Certain types of chickpeas can hold up well against droughts, and lentils are great for improving soil health. However, other cultivars are sensitive to heat and ozone exposure.
Soy, another staple crop for global food production, has been the most studied pulse with regards to climate and is especially sensitive to drought. One 2017 report estimates that drought has led to a 12.4% decrease in global soy production, another report from 2016 estimates that ozone exposure has also led to similar decreases. Rising temperatures also lead to more pests and diseases — nearly 40% of soybean farmers in Malawi were recently affected by soybean rust.
For beans and other pulses that are able to grow despite the elements, the impacts of climate change may lead to lower nutrient levels, including iron and protein. A 2015 working paper published by Copenhagen’s CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security suggests that harvest losses for these beans will be especially harmful in sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on this crop. Losses of suitable land to cultivate this plant in the Sahel, western, and central Africa are projected at nearly 100%.
Root vegetables are expected to be more climate resilient than their cereal counterparts, potatoes still need a certain amount of quality water and low temperatures to thrive. Higher temperatures, drought, and salinity levels in the soil all work against the plant. Predictions vary for how this will impact harvests in the future, but one model suggests that the annual losses could be as high as 6% in 2055. That may seem slight, but according to the Food and Agriculture Organization, potatoes are the third largest crop in the world after wheat and rice, with over 239 million tons consumed each year — and growing. A 6% drop in production would mean losses of roughly 14 million tons.
One solution Concern has found to this is introducing cultivars of climate-resistant potatoes to the farmers we work with. We’ve seen success in the Ethiopian highlands with a variety known as the Irish potato. Sweet potatoes are also especially resilient against the effects of climate change on agriculture, and provide reliable food, nutrition, and income security.
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Concern’s Kieran McConville meets a man growing a crop central to the culture and history of his native Ireland: potatoes. Find out how the humble spud is transforming lives and fighting hunger in the Ethiopian highlands.
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Earlier this year, a report from South Korea revealed that the country’s kimchi industry was under threat. The cause was climate change, which has affected napa cabbage production in the country, cutting highland harvest areas by more than 50% in the last 20 years, and threatening to eliminate usable farmland in the highlands entirely by 2090.
Napa cabbage, like many other cabbages and leafy greens, is usually planted in mountainous areas where temperatures stay cool even in the hot summer months. One report from 2018 found that cabbage grown in a climate that was 3.4º C above the average temperature led to harvests that were 65% lower than normal conditions.
Bananas and plantains are also at high risk when it comes to climate change, with the organization Fair Trade International estimating that nearly half of all land suitable for farming bananas and plantains will decrease due to deteriorating conditions. Many of the countries that produce bananas are also in the paths of hurricanes and cyclones, leading to increased threats from floods and storms.
High temperatures also lead to several issues, including damaging funguses, moisture deficits, and over-ripening of the fruit that leads to harvest decreases. (One group in Malawi found a way of offsetting this loss driven by over-ripened fruits: producing banana wine.)
The African Orphan Crops Consortium ranked okra as the number-one most important subsistence crop for the continent. Believed to have originated in Ethiopia and Sudan, the nutrient- and mineral-rich staple has traveled and is especially common in west Africa.
However, heat and drought have left many versions of the crop unable to cope with changing climate conditions. One study examining harvests over 40 years in Nigeria showed that, for every 1% increase in the mean temperature, average okra yields decreased by 29%. Even more of a risk is drought. While many variants of okra can cope with heat, if it’s coupled with a lack of humidity, harvests can be reduced by anywhere between 30% and 100%.
In 2020, the BBC reported that tomato prices in east Africa had skyrocketed, as much as quadrupling in some areas. The shortages were due to climate-related floods in the region, which decimated tomato crops in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania.
Conversely, the same Nigerian study of okra also revealed that drought and heat are also threats to tomato production. A 1% temperature increase will lead to a nearly 36% decrease in harvests. (The study also links a 1% rainfall increase to a 6.6% decrease in tomato yields.) Other studies of tomato production in the Sahel have indicated that the plant’s nutritional value has decreased over time due to climate-related factors, which can be offset by switching to greenhouse varieties.
Another dietary staple in Africa (where 60% of the world’s cassava supply is grown), this root vegetable is eaten by about 500 million Africans every day. Like potatoes, it is a sturdier crop against many climate-related challenges. However, it is still vulnerable to extreme water scarcity and declining soil fertility. One study in Uganda found that nearly 98% of farmers surveyed were seeing declines in their cassava harvests due to climate.
Agriculture is key to Concern’s work in ending hunger, building livelihoods, and fighting the effects of climate change. The majority of people we work with are involved in some way with farming or food production.
In communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis, we promote new growing techniques, source improved seed variants, trial alternative crops, and implement soil protection practices — all methods that are part of Climate Smart Agriculture. CSA techniques sustainably increase farm productivity, adapt to climate change, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions driven by agriculture. We also work to strengthen links with the private sector to facilitate access to supplies and equipment.
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